Five Years of Taliban 2.0: What Has Changed in Afghanistan?
Five Years Later: What Kind of Afghanistan Has Emerged?
Five years later, the central question is no longer whether the Taliban
can govern Afghanistan. They have shown that they can retain political and
territorial control. The more important question is what kind of Afghanistan
has emerged under Taliban rule, and what the cost to its people?
When the Taliban first returned to Kabul in 2021, they attempted to
project a different image—what many described as “Taliban 2.0.” In their
first press conference, they promised an inclusive administration and spoke
about women's education and employment, the protection of minorities, and even
freedom of the press. At the time, there was a legitimate question: had the
Taliban genuinely changed, or had they simply changed the language through
which they presented themselves to the world?
Five years later, the evidence is increasingly clear: the promises of
inclusion have not translated into an inclusive political order. Afghanistan
remains under an authoritarian system in which political participation is
severely restricted, independent civil society faces enormous pressure, and
women and girls have been progressively excluded from public life.
What “Taliban 2.0” Means for Women and Girls
The most devastating evidence is the situation of Afghan women and girls.
In 2026, Afghanistan remains the only country in the world where girls and
women are formally excluded from secondary and higher education. Around 2.4
million Afghan girls remain excluded from secondary education, five years
after the Taliban takeover. Restrictions have also expanded into employment,
movement, healthcare and participation in public life. The United Nations has
documented more than 100 restrictive decrees affecting women since 2021.
This is perhaps the clearest measure of the distance between the promise
of “Taliban 2.0” and the reality of Taliban rule. In 2021, the Taliban spoke of
education and employment for women “according to Sharia.” Five years later,
millions of girls have lost access to education and women have been pushed
further out of the workforce and public sphere. The consequences are not only
about rights and dignity; they are also undermining Afghanistan's economic and
social future. UNICEF estimates that restrictions on girls' education and
women's labour-force participation are already imposing substantial economic
costs on Afghanistan.
Beyond Repression: A Deeper Humanitarian and Economic Crisis
At the same time, it would be simplistic to understand Afghanistan only
through the question of Taliban repression. The country is facing a much deeper
and interconnected crisis. Four decades of war have destroyed institutions,
livelihoods and social infrastructure. International assistance has declined,
climate shocks and drought have intensified, and millions of Afghans have
returned or been forcibly returned from neighbouring countries. In 2026, around
21.9 million people—nearly half of Afghanistan's population—are estimated to
require humanitarian assistance.
The economic picture is equally complicated. There are signs of
macroeconomic stabilisation, but this has not translated into improved living
conditions for ordinary Afghans. According to UNDP, around 28 million
Afghans—three out of every four people—were unable to meet their basic needs in
2025. The combination of poverty, unemployment, restrictions on women,
climate change and declining international assistance has created a fragile and
deeply unequal society.
From International Isolation to Regional Engagement
In 2021, the Taliban were largely isolated internationally. Five years
later, that isolation has weakened. Countries increasingly engage with Kabul
because of security concerns, migration, trade, regional connectivity and
geopolitical interests. Russia went further and became the first country to
formally recognise the Taliban government in July 2025. China, Iran, Pakistan,
India and Central Asian states have also maintained varying degrees of
diplomatic and practical engagement, although formal recognition remains a
different question.
This growing engagement raises an uncomfortable question: Can the
international community engage with the Taliban without normalising their
system of repression? There is a genuine need to prevent Afghanistan from
becoming a source of regional insecurity, terrorism, displacement and
humanitarian catastrophe. But engagement cannot mean abandoning the rights of
Afghan women, girls, minorities and political opponents.
The Taliban and the Legacy of the Cold War
The history of the Taliban also cannot be separated from the history of
the Cold War. The Taliban did not emerge in a political vacuum. Afghanistan
became a major theatre of the Cold War, when the United States, Pakistan and
their allies supported the Afghan Mujahideen against the Soviet-backed
government and Soviet forces. Networks created during that period later became
connected with more radical groups, including Al-Qaeda. The consequences of
those geopolitical choices continued to shape Afghanistan long after the Cold
War ended.
The tragedy of Afghanistan therefore cannot be explained simply as a failure of the Taliban, the United States, Pakistan or the former Afghan government alone. It is also a story of great-power intervention, militarisation, proxy politics and the repeated failure of external powers to understand Afghan society on its own terms.
The Lessons of Twenty Years of US Intervention
The twenty-year US-led war provides another difficult lesson. The
intervention was launched in the aftermath of the September 2001 terrorist
attacks and was justified through the language of counter-terrorism, democracy
and reconstruction. Yet the war produced enormous human suffering and failed to
create a political order capable of surviving without massive external military
and financial support. The withdrawal in 2021 exposed the fragility of that
entire project.
Recognition, Legitimacy and the Future of Kabul
Five years after the Taliban returned to power, the question of
international recognition and economic sustainability remains central to
Afghanistan’s future. Although the Taliban have consolidated their control over
the country and gradually expanded diplomatic and economic engagement with
regional powers, Afghanistan continues to face severe humanitarian and economic
challenges. In 2026, nearly 22 million people require humanitarian assistance,
while international funding has declined significantly.
The question of legitimacy, however, cannot be separated from human
rights. The Taliban have progressively restricted the rights of women and
girls, including their access to education, employment, movement and public
life. The international community therefore faces a dilemma: how to maintain
engagement with Kabul to address humanitarian, economic and security concerns
without normalising a system that systematically excludes a large section of
its population.
China and the Changing Regional Balance
Afghanistan has become an important arena for regional diplomacy. China
has maintained close engagement with Kabul, providing humanitarian assistance
while seeking greater economic and strategic cooperation. Beijing has also
attempted to mediate tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, reflecting its
growing interest in regional stability and connectivity.
India's Changing Role in Afghanistan
India's position has also evolved considerably since 2021. Rather than
remaining distant from Kabul, New Delhi has increasingly pursued pragmatic
engagement while continuing to emphasise humanitarian assistance, development
cooperation and regional security. India increased its development assistance
to Afghanistan to ₹150 crore in the 2026–27 budget, and the two countries have
continued institutional dialogue on humanitarian assistance, healthcare,
education, trade and connectivity.
For India, therefore, the challenge is to develop a calibrated engagement
with Kabul that protects its strategic and security interests while maintaining
a principled position on terrorism, human rights, women's rights and political
inclusion. Engagement should not mean unconditional acceptance. India's
long-term role in Afghanistan should be guided by the interests and aspirations
of the Afghan people, while ensuring that Afghan territory is not used for
terrorism or activities threatening India's security.
Conclusion
Five years on, the central challenge is no longer simply whether the
Taliban can govern Afghanistan. It is whether Afghanistan can move from a
fragile form of political stability towards a genuinely inclusive and
sustainable peace one that guarantees dignity, rights and meaningful
participation for all Afghans. The larger lesson of five years of Taliban 2.0
is that stability cannot simply mean the absence of war. A country may
have territorial control and a functioning administration while its citizens
continue to experience poverty, exclusion and repression. Sustainable peace
requires political inclusion, social justice, economic opportunity and the
protection of basic rights.
The people of Afghanistan have already endured more than four decades of
conflict, foreign intervention and political upheaval. They deserve more than
another political experiment imposed from above. They deserve the right to
determine their own future—with dignity, education, freedom, security and
meaningful participation in the political life of their country.
Five years after 15
August 2021, the most important question is therefore not whether the Taliban
have survived. They have. The real question is whether Afghanistan can build a
future in which survival is not mistaken for peace, and order is not mistaken
for justice.
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