Bihar Election 2020: Tejaswi Yadav is Winning the Battle?


 In the midst of COVID 19 Pandemic, the first phase of voting completed on 28th October, two phases of election will be on 3rd November and 7th November respectively. The counting of vote will be on 10th November 2020.

Election in any democratic society should have been normal act, to elect their representatives for leading governance at state or any local system of governance, where the things should be for betterment of the people and their requirement for leading dignified life. But, for some times, in our country elections are becoming instruments to encroach the inappropriate power, even in some cases in the recent times, the party or alliance, who secured the majority but with the many new methods has been discovered in our country to toppled the government.

It's important to see the election campaign by the NDA camps, they don't have confidence or issues to talk with voters, even they have failed to share their work of state government as well as central government work instead, they are busy attacking on the Chief Minister candidate from opposition alliance. Nitish has been directly attacking Tejashwi Yadav in his every election meeting, now Prime minister joined the Nitish way of personal attack on Tajashwi Yadav, this shows, Tejashwi has successfully convincing his voters about the 15 years of non-performing government of Nitish under NDA. At the time the grand alliance fighting election with clear agenda and plans for the future.

For the first time election narratives being discussed about the real issues, like Jobs, education, health and industry. The grand alliance is rolling on ground with full conviction and trust with in parties. But this kind of strong bindings are missing in the NDA, contrary Chirag's style of fighting election is giving negative impact on the NDA. How can be one regional party, fighting election against the one main partner of NDA's, whom they have declared the CM candidate. The many ex-office berries of BJP members fighting election with LJP tickets. This will only enhance the vote share in this election, LJP hardly win few seat. But, they will able to damage JDU vote, because in many constituencies LJP will able attract BJP core voters. It’s interesting to see the commentary by the expert, they are saying the decision of the Chirag Paswan to contest elections against JDU candidate will not harm the BJP, but they are not saying ultimately the NDA alliance will be losing the seats. How can BJP would happy to see their alliance partner JDU losing?

For Left parties, this assembly election is really crucial to reclaim there lost ground, CPIML had three members in the outgoing assembly, this faction of left beautifully able to combine the peasant and workers struggles with social Justice agendas. Whatever, I am able to understand, the CPIML also recognize the Bhahujan formula of Kanshi Ram, regarding take care of 85% of population and give representation to those communities in the leadership. Why I am saying this?  Because If you look the current three MLA of the party, all them are themselves from the last stair of the society, but party built the new leaders not only to led the protest and struggles, but the same people can equality capable to led in the legislative house, to speak for their own people. This is the big sift in the left political approach in the recent times, there are need to be united left for poll as well as for the political program.

Many potential analysts are saying Congress has taken more seats to fight the election, yes congress is not strong, but this grand alliance is capable enough to support the congress party for all aspects.

The Tajashwi Yadav being projected as leader from his party for this election, and they were consistent in this position, some of their alliance partners, who were in the alliance during lokshabha like RLSP, HAM and VIP, did not fighting election with the grand alliance, here leader of RLSP has aspiration for the CM post, so it was obvious to him to go with their own. The grand alliance has also learned from the other state, where smaller factions has been shifted their loyalty, in the current political environment, this is necessary to form such alliance, who can intact in the adverse circumstance. The grand alliance with RJD, INC and left are doing second experiment after Jharkhand to build alliance based on the political commitment. The grand alliance accepted Tajashwi Yadav as a chief minister candidate with heart and mind to fight election. Tejashwi, emerged as a mass leader, he raised the common questions, which affects common people of the Bihar, like job, education, health issues. Tejashwi oratory style appealing youth in the election meeting. The way he has been connecting with the audience, in the same fashion Lalu used to talk with the audience, but tone and toner are different in the Tajashwi’s speech, his tried to attract everyone from the society, in many occasion he said, his politics is different from the Lalu ji, now need for Economic justice, which is required for all, he talked about the government job, and he promised to start process for the recruitment in his fist cabinet meeting, if he got elected. He also promising to give same salary for the same work, in Bihar, thousands of school teachers are getting less payment for same work as his colleagues are getting more.  

If you remembered, in the pick of the COVID cases, the deputy chief minister of Bihar government put the onus of the bad health facilities in the state to their predecessor, when things are getting worse, people are not able to even receive the oxygen support, this is not in one case in the state, where things are in the bad shape instead everywhere is in discouraging health infrastructure. Its look like, health system in the Bihar itself required grater treatment. The present government has been ruling the state almost for the last 15 years, their entire campaign was based on the reforms and governance in the Bihar. These current ruling elite failed on the both fronts. I don’t have to explain in the greater way, because you have the evidence with the image in the immediate past and the contemporary time.

For the reforms, you have to just look the situations of the Bihari migrants. In this COVID19 lockdowns just break the curtain from the hidden despairs and exploitation of the migrants form Bihar, the same Bihar Government instead of helping to migrant, they said, they don’t have resource to help, I am sure, you must have remembered the students in Rajasthan wept on the social media for help from their CM. There is no need for explain, what happened to the migrant afterward, the untold story for struggle of poor people to reach their home. This itself explains about the story of reform being done or not done by the current government in last 15 years.

The governance and state health infrastructure are not up to par, let alone the preparations of the state to handle a crisis like this pandemic. One can understand this through the case of the recent outbreak of Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) in Bihar in June 2019, where around 37 child lost their life, or rather, I would say, the health system of Bihar did not have the capacity to prevent the situation. This was palpable from the reports coming from the ground; and only functional institutions at the ground-level could have averted the grim situation. Furthermore, according to Nation health portal (NHP) 2018, in Bihar, one doctor serves a total population of 28,391.

I am not talking about the education situation in Bihar, even the universities examination or sessions are not on the time, here we can imagine the quality of the education or teacher’s presence in the universities or in the schools. Because, still students are migrating to the other part of the country in search of education. 

Who will be going to win the election? This is important question, which will resolve on only on 10th November, but one thing is clear in this election, almost all parties are talking about the job and many tall promises. All parties, have increased the campaigning for the last two phases of election.

For NDA alliance PM Modi has taken the charge to rejuvenate energy into his supporters to give vote for Nitish led NDA alliance, but surprisingly Nitish has been not accepted by all the party members including many state level leaders, who crossed the BJP and now challenging to Nitish with LJP symbols, these are the confusing messages for local level workers, and this will certainly harm the NDA, even though many people are saying only JDU will be losing in this election, they are counting BJP as a victorious, But my observation different, I can see for the BJP, there will be double anti-incumbency, one for the 15 years government with Nitish in the state and second, the central government, where there are many genuine grievances, which was not full filled in the last 6 years of Modi led government for Bihar and Students from Bihar are worse effected by the jobs cuts or delay in the recruitment process for the central government jobs. Here is caveat, JDU as party will see at the ground, if they are not getting vote or support as an alliance candidate instead, BJP worker giving vote to the LJP, in such condition what will be JDU’s Call for their workers, where BJP is in direct fight with grand alliance?

There will interesting to see the results of this election, its depend on the people, and their believe trust into Tejashwi’s promises for Job, Health, education and irrigation. One thing is clear in the middle of the election, in spite of all initial rejection by the poll stars and journalist, who had given walk over to NDA, now they are seeing Tejashwi as a strong contender, and the way Tejashwi able to connect with people at the rally, if those enthusiasms converts in to the vote, in such case Grand alliance will have comfortable victory in this election.

Comments

  1. Good analysis🤝 hope this ll come true

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well written arguments about the Bihar election. True that there is two-sided anti incumbency this time. But, still there is chance of evm tampering. If it will not happen then the Tej of Laluji will be CM. Hoping so.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Many thanks for sharing your observation after reading my blog. Yes, your point is important regarding EVM, because many complained are there during the first two phases of election in Bihar for not evm functioning properly

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